Anime Saimoe Tournament 2011 – Group Predictions

Well, the draws for this tournament have been done and looking at the draws, this should be an interesting tournament. Before I go any further, I will say that all five Madoka girls and Charlotte are all in different groups. Whether you like it or not, they will not beating each other up for now. Does that mean that they’ll take six of the eight final eight spots? We’ll see right now by going through each group and major matches that will or could happen:

Group A: So, off the bat, we start off with a Madoka girl. Mikoto-chan will be facing Homura-chan. Actually, if you don’t remember, Homura-chan already beat Mikoto-chan pretty easily in the third match. Unless Mikoto-chan can get a lot of support, she’ll be out in the first round. There are two girls that could give her trouble: Victorique and Lotte. She will most likely face Victorique in the third round and she could be looking for revenge. It was a Madoka girl, Sayaka-chan, that snatched the victory away from her by one vote. But Homura-chan is a much more powerful girl than Sayaka-chan so Victorique can possibly be out in round 3. In the group final, it should be Homura-chan and Lotte fighting against each other. Lotte could possibly take the win away from Homura-chan, but I think that Homura-chan has much more support than the forces that might want the Madoka girls to lose. So, for this group, I think Homura-chan will advance. If now, it’ll be Victorique or Lotte.

Group B: Another group with a Madoka girl, but it’s the weakest of the six in this main tournament, Charlotte. She should be able to get to the second round, but getting to the third round is a different story. She will need to face either Gertrue Barkhorn or Shiomiya Shiori and Ryuushi. All of them did pretty will but I think that Ryuushi might be able to beat Charlotte in the second round. She will be facing either Mugi or Tenshi, Kasugano Sora or Ayatsuji Tsukasa, or Merry Nightmare, all of which can beat her. Of those girls, I think that Kanade-chan might have the best chance to advance to the group finals. She will probably face Rikorin, Tomonori, or Erica Hartmann (all in the same first round match) or Lingyin Huang. I think that Lingyin has a slight advantage her. So if it were a match between IS’s Lingyin and Angel Beats!’s Kanade-chan, Lingyin-chan might have a slight advantage since the power of Angel Beats! has been fading pretty quickly. Though I said Lingyin might win, this group is pretty tough to read.

Group C: Well, let’s look at this easier group. Really, I went through the group and thought, almost all of them have no chance against Madoka-chan, even if they had all the anti-Madoka votes with them. Only one girl has a chance to beat her, Elsea. But even then, she needs all the help in the world. I think Madoka-chan will easily make it. If she somehow loses, it will be because of Elsea.

Group D: Unfortunately for Mio-chan, Ika-chan is in her first match. Why do I say unfortunately? Because I think that Ika-chan is a bit more powerful than the fading Mio-chan. In the other side, I see Last Order-chan with the best chance of going to the group finals, so it should be Ika-chan and Last Order-chan. And of those two, I think that Ika-chan would win that battle, though it would be close.

Group E: Of the five main Madoka girls, Sayaka-chan has the hardest path to the final eight. She shouldn’t have a problem in the first round, but in the second round, she will have to face Ruiko-chan and Uiharu. There is a chance that those two could split votes, giving Sayaka-chan the win, but there’s a better chance that one will be casted out to try to get Sayaka-chan out. For now, I’ll say she’ll win, where she’ll have to face the winner of the Erio-chan/Meme/Charlotte first round match. For that match, I think that this will mainly be a match between Erio-chan and Charlotte, since Denpa votes will probably go to Erio-chan. I think Erio-chan has the slight advantage in this match. Now, if Erio-chan and Sayaka-chan end up fighting, I think that Erio-chan has a small advantage especially if anti-Madoka votes show up. Erio-chan might end up fighting Ohana in the group final, though Azu-nyan and Haqua could steal the win from her. In the cast that Ohana is Erio-chan’s opponent, I think Erio-chan will advance.

Group F: Mami should have no problem in her side of the group and Shana-chan should have no problem in her side of her group. Now, the question is, can Shana-chan beat Mami. This should be a closer match than the Madoka/Elsea match, but I think that Mami will beat Shana-chan.

Group G: Index and Kirino have the best chances of going to the group finals, though Kirino has the advance between the two. In the other half, I think that even though Kyouko-chan is one of the weakest Madoka girls, she should make it to the group finals if Rihoko and Akechi don’t have anything to say. In a match between Kirino and Kyouko-chan, Kirino does have the advantage, though Kyouko-chan can steal the win if Kirino is not careful.

Group H: Aria-chan should have no problem getting to the group final. As for the other slot, it is between Kuroko and Kuroneko, but I think that Ruri-chan does have the advantage here. The group final match should be an interesting match. None of them have the clear advantage and both can possibly win. If I had to pick one, I would say, uh, maybe Aria-chan. But then again…

So, with everything out and predicted, we can rest for now. Enjoy this long rest. For those who are fortunate enough to go to Comiket, I envy you. For those who are not going, I feel your pain. I’ll be back on Tuesday (late Monday morning for those not in Japan) to go through the first three matchs in the main tournament.

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  1. Trackback: Block Buster « saimoe update blog

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